The Causal Impact of the Taliban’s Insurgency and Return to Power on Economic Well-being in Afghanistan
This study examines the causal impact of insurgency and government collapse on economic well-being in Afghanistan. Utilizing Bayesian structural time-series causal impact models, the research investigates the effects of the long-standing Taliban insurgency, the resulting insecurity, and the uncertai...
| Authors: | ; |
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| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
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| Fernleihe: | Fernleihe für die Fachinformationsdienste |
| Published: |
Routledge, Taylor & Francis Group
2023
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| In: |
The review of faith & international affairs
Year: 2023, Volume: 21, Issue: 3, Pages: 86-102 |
| Further subjects: | B
income per capita
B Taliban B Afghanistan B Insurgency B economic well-being B Insecurity B aid dependency |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (lizenzpflichtig) |
| Summary: | This study examines the causal impact of insurgency and government collapse on economic well-being in Afghanistan. Utilizing Bayesian structural time-series causal impact models, the research investigates the effects of the long-standing Taliban insurgency, the resulting insecurity, and the uncertainty associated with the US policy shift and reduced international aid on Afghanistan's economic well-being. Additionally, the study conducts a counterfactual analysis to assess the hypothetical impact if the Taliban insurgency or restoration had not occurred. The findings demonstrate that international aid has not contributed to sustainable economic well-being, and that the policy shift of the US from counter-terrorism toward engaging in negotiations with the Taliban, has resulted in a significant economic decline. This research offers valuable insights into the intricate relationship between aid dependency, insurgency, political uncertainty, and economic well-being in fragile and aid-dependent states like Afghanistan. |
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| ISSN: | 1931-7743 |
| Contains: | Enthalten in: The review of faith & international affairs
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| Persistent identifiers: | DOI: 10.1080/15570274.2023.2235828 |