Forecasting religious change: a Bayesian model predicting proportional Christian change in New Zealand
For over a century, sociologists of religion have been describing declining trends in religious affiliation across most industrialized countries, a trend that Max Weber characterized as "the disenchantment of the world." Although secularization is a matter of ongoing debate, there is relat...
| Authors: | ; ; ; |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic Article |
| Language: | English |
| Check availability: | HBZ Gateway |
| Journals Online & Print: | Drawer...
|
| Fernleihe: | Fernleihe für die Fachinformationsdienste |
| Published: |
Routledge
2015
|
| In: |
Religion, brain & behavior
Year: 2015, Volume: 5, Issue: 1, Pages: 15-23 |
| Further subjects: | B
Bayesian models
B New Zealand B Christianity B Forecasting B Religious Change |
| Online Access: |
Volltext (lizenzpflichtig) |
MARC
| LEADER | 00000naa a22000002 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | 1837945195 | ||
| 003 | DE-627 | ||
| 005 | 20230302121944.0 | ||
| 007 | cr uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 230302s2015 xx |||||o 00| ||eng c | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1080/2153599X.2013.824497 |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (DE-627)1837945195 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)KXP1837945195 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-627 |b ger |c DE-627 |e rda | ||
| 041 | |a eng | ||
| 084 | |a 0 |2 ssgn | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Hoverd, William James |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 109 | |a Hoverd, William James |a Hoverd, William J. | ||
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Forecasting religious change: a Bayesian model predicting proportional Christian change in New Zealand |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2015 | |
| 336 | |a Text |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |a Computermedien |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |a Online-Ressource |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 520 | |a For over a century, sociologists of religion have been describing declining trends in religious affiliation across most industrialized countries, a trend that Max Weber characterized as "the disenchantment of the world." Although secularization is a matter of ongoing debate, there is relatively little predictive modeling. Using New Zealand census data from 1966-2006, we develop a Bayesian predictive model to forecast the proportion of the population identifying as Christian in the future. A surprisingly simple linear model revealed that Christian affiliation in New Zealand has been steadily declining at a constant rate of around 0.90% per year since 1966. The model explained 97.4% of the variance in proportional change in the New Zealand Christian population over the past half-century. The model also offers testable predictions. We estimate that 46.1% of the population will identify as Christian in New Zealand in 2015, with a further decline to 41.7% by 2020. The 95% credible interval for the 2015 estimate is between 42.5% and 49.6%. The 95% credible interval for the 2020 estimate is between 37.7% and 45.8%. We consider both the strengths of this Bayesian crystal ball and its potential limitations. | ||
| 601 | |a Proportion | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Bayesian models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Christianity | |
| 650 | 4 | |a New Zealand | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Religious Change | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Bulbulia, Joseph |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Partow, Negar |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Sibley, Chris G. |e VerfasserIn |4 aut | |
| 773 | 0 | 8 | |i Enthalten in |t Religion, brain & behavior |d London [u.a.] : Routledge, 2011 |g 5(2015), 1, Seite 15-23 |h Online-Ressource |w (DE-627)666852502 |w (DE-600)2624106-7 |w (DE-576)457642572 |x 2153-5981 |7 nnns |
| 773 | 1 | 8 | |g volume:5 |g year:2015 |g number:1 |g pages:15-23 |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1080/2153599X.2013.824497 |x Resolving-System |z lizenzpflichtig |3 Volltext |
| 936 | u | w | |d 5 |j 2015 |e 1 |h 15-23 |
| 951 | |a AR | ||
| ELC | |a 1 | ||
| ITA | |a 1 |t 1 | ||
| LOK | |0 000 xxxxxcx a22 zn 4500 | ||
| LOK | |0 001 4282528990 | ||
| LOK | |0 003 DE-627 | ||
| LOK | |0 004 1837945195 | ||
| LOK | |0 005 20230302121944 | ||
| LOK | |0 008 230302||||||||||||||||ger||||||| | ||
| LOK | |0 040 |a DE-Tue135 |c DE-627 |d DE-Tue135 | ||
| LOK | |0 092 |o n | ||
| LOK | |0 852 |a DE-Tue135 | ||
| LOK | |0 852 1 |9 00 | ||
| LOK | |0 935 |a ixzs |a ixzo |a rwrk | ||
| ORI | |a SA-MARC-ixtheoa001.raw | ||
| REL | |a 1 | ||
| SUB | |a REL | ||